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At peace with global warming

I've so far only cherry-picked this long article on eminent physicist Freeman Dyson, a brilliant man who happens to be at peace with global warming.

As the article's author puts it, this is "something far more formidable than just the latest peevish right-wing climate-change denier".

Most of Dyson's views seem to have already been aired in some form by others; for instance, that more carbon dioxide will fuel more plant growth, to the benefit of plant-dependent humanity.

But these opinions carry extra potency when they come from one of the world's leading physicists (or, as his critics suggest, former leading physicists).

For me, though, the article's stand-out sentence is this:

"…Dyson has said that it all boils down to 'a deeper disagreement about values' between those who think 'nature knows best' and that 'any gross human disruption of the natural environment is evil', and 'humanists', like himself, who contend that protecting the existing biosphere is not as important as fighting more repugnant evils like war, poverty and unemployment."

On the surface, the global warming debate is about science.

What fuels the debate isn't zeal for scientific logic, though.

It's complex and intangible human things like identity, attachment to ideas, and pride.

That's what gives Freeman Dyson's thoughts a special interest: he's old enough and famous enough to be hopefully beyond all such trifling matters of the ego.

But his suggestion that humanists should be more concerned with lightening human misery than global warming needs questioning.

Dyson's positive view of warming has Earth moving into a Jurassic state of abundance.

That could indeed be a good thing if it happened over 10,000 or a million years. But not decades.

If you push the whole global warming/climate change hypothesis into a dark corner and forget about it, and unplug every climate modelling computer, you're still left with some observed trends that don't bode well for war, poverty or unemployment.

Glaciers are disappearing in the Pyrenees, along with ice from the Great Lakes. In the Arctic, polar bears are shrinking in numbers and size and in the Antarctic, phytoplankton are on the move. At home, there is the drought punishing south-eastern Australia.

It may be an everyday garden-variety climate cycle, but it also may be what we can expect from warming oceans.

These could be unconnected, short-lived events that have nothing to do with human-induced global warming. Here's hoping.

But if the trends are connected and they persist, they are going to remap the world's natural resources in a very short time. Altered water availability and climate zones mean the movement of human populations in a crowded world.

That possibility presents questions that should exercise any humanist, irrespective of belief in the global warming hypothesis.

Movement creates friction, and much more potential for the things that peturb Freeman Dyson.

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And what makes you imagine that a physicist knows more about increased carbon dioxide concentrations on plant growth than plant scientists? There are a range of influences here that it is difficult to unravel. Increased atmospheric CO2 can result in lower nutrient availability through unfavourable interactions in soils -- resulting in lower productivity. There is a proverb that I like on this topic. I don't buy a dog to do the barking myself. This is a big complex area -- and no-one can be an expert across the board. We need to ensure we can have and do have some level of trust in the experts -- because we do not have the time to know all about each aspect of the problem ourselves. Now if the public believe that the funding regime of science leads to aberations -- I think all of this nation are to blame. We've put this funding regime in place. If the scientists can't be trusted because of funding issues -- what is the solution? We need the science, what can be done about the funding?
Posted by max, 27/03/2009 7:01:30 AM
What worries me is not global warming, but the global warming hoax, that is being used to impose socialism/communism on us. More and more scientists and thinking people all over the world are realizing that man-made global warming is a hoax that threatens our future and the future of our children. More than 700 international scientists dissent over man-made global warming claims. They are now more than 13 times the number of UN scientists (52) who authored the media-hyped IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers. http://www.climatechangefraud.com/content/view/3562/218/ Additionally, 32,000 American scientists have signed onto a petition that states, "There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s climate…" http://www.petitionproject.org/index.html "Progressive" (communist) politicians like Obama seem determined to force us to swallow the man-made global warming scam. We need to defend ourselves from the UN and these politicians, who threaten our future and the future of our children. Based on a lie, they have already wasted billions and plan to increase taxes, limit development, and enslave us. If not stopped, the global warming scam will enrich the scammers (Gore and Obama’s Wall Street friends), increase the power of the U.N. and communists like Obama, and multiply poverty and servitude for the rest of us.
Posted by Antonio Sosa, 27/03/2009 8:23:58 AM
FYI recent paper on North Atlantic warming...it appears that most (>65%)of the observed increase in ocean temperature is due to the lack of dust from the sahara and not increased CO2...the paper can be found at Science Online...ref is given below...all I can say is that I am certainly not at peace with Global Warming....mid tropospheric temps have been dropping since 2001 despite the increase in CO2 levels....this would indicate that the correlation between CO2 levels and Temp does not exist...if this is true then entire Global Warming concept CO2 etc etc...falls apart... Published Online March 26, 2009 Science DOI: 10.1126/science.1167404 Science Express Index Reports Submitted on October 20, 2008 Accepted on March 11, 2009 The Role of Aerosols in the Evolution of Tropical North Atlantic Ocean Temperature Anomalies Amato T. Evan 1*, Daniel J. Vimont 2, Andrew K. Heidinger 3, James P. Kossin 4, Ralf Bennartz 2
Posted by snowmaneasy, 27/03/2009 9:04:16 PM
Antonio, you are a paranoid, fear mongering ignoramus. you flat-earthers need to join the 21st century. you probably don't believe in evolution either.
Posted by stever, 28/03/2009 2:28:55 AM
Stever: You need to do a bit of your own research, rather than relying on Govt and UN sanctioned scientists doing it for you. Get your local rainfall records. Average them for the 1st 50 years of the 20th century. Then average the 2nd 50 years. Your average will go up. Mine went up more than 25%. The only thing that is constant is change. And that includes the climate. Ask yourself: What caused the Ice Ages? What caused them to end? Who's the flat-earther now?
Posted by Brindi, 29/03/2009 5:47:19 PM
All discussions of this sort should be allowed to continue and all should have access to them. This freedom of people to communicate and air their views no matter how weird they may appear to others, is fundamental to a free society. One of the greatest fears governments have is ordinary people around the world being able to talk to each other and exchange views and information freely. It is people seeking and hopefully finding the truth without government spin and interference and without the influence of the conventional media that has governments worried. Obviously if ordinary people around the world get to know each other they might not want to fight each other and they might vote differently if they find out the truth is not what they are being fed by governments and their institutions. This appears to me to be why Conroy is pushing for internet censorship. He puts forward the reason of stopping child pornography, but is he also banning other unrelated sites which may be critical of the government and its climate change agenda? Is he also proposing to monitor blogs such as this?
Posted by ozfirst, 30/03/2009 9:46:49 AM
Antonio you seem to be scared of a global conspiracy to force the world into communism and socialism, fearing loss of control or freedom, yet I suspect you are in fact enslaved to capitilism and do not notice. Of the 32,000 scientists you claim signed the petition against global warming, 12% are earth scientists or environmental scientist, atmospheric scientists, 18% are physicists, aerospace, nuclear engineers or mechanical engineers and 32% are from general science. I wonder how many are disgruntled that they were not funded or are concerned for thier jobs. The IPCC reports were compiled by 50 or so scientists but the research of over 2000 was used.

The concept of fighting other humanitarain issues before climate change was raised by Bjorn Lomberg at the start of the decade ( if not earlier) in his book "The sceptical environmentalist". Any resaerch that "appears " to point to one phenomenon without a direct causal link is no proof of any hypothesis. And how is it the very models that predict the warming of the troposphere are used as "proof" there is no global warming are derided when other predictions come true and are then derided as "only models" by anti AGW campaigners.

By the time the signs are clear and indefutable it will be too late, there will not be the chance for AGW sceptics to say "sorry we better hurry up and do something" and that is why the issue is so divisive. There are compelling arguments on both sides of the debate, the trouble is the outcomes are either business as usual or we kill the planet. We should at least address the risk and not limit our future options, we can always repeal the laws and open up all the coal power stations again. Humans are releasing a lot of energy into the earth's system and the earth will distribute that energy around the globe, through the use of the oceans which underpin the weather systems. Anyone who has studied risk managment would see this AGW as an unacceptable risk and the prudent step would be to not risk the eventuality occuring until more was known and this involves cutting emissions in the short term. The other option is to go hard and farm the planet in its entirity and make the planet do what we need, if you think we can.

Posted by the lorax, 30/03/2009 3:02:34 PM
Brindi - do your own research? Huh? examine rainfall records over 50 to 100 years for a local area? Are you aware that climate change happens (usually) over a very long time and AGW (Anthtopogenic Global Warming) is apparently happening over a very short time, that is a big difference. Oh and by the way the historical evidence does show a change in CO2 following a rise in temperature, but this is at times when the actual gassess in the atmosphere were way diferent, eg 15% oxygen not the 18% we have now. A point conveniently never mentioned by skeptics. It is true that change is the only constant we have, the trouble is the method we use to feed our rapidly growing population has developed essentially during a brief stable window of a few hundred years, a geological blip. So entrenched are the geopolitical manifestations based around resources that as the change, no matter how quick will cause more upheavel than in any previous climate change. The skeptics say we should do nothing about AGW because it does not exist. Climate change does (as you correctly point out) exist. The big difference is it is happening faster, to more people, with less chance of change and the earth is far more stressed than at any other time in earth's history (short of a couple of meteorite impacts). Adapt and wake up to the fact that the argument of the climate change skeptics is causing us to miss the real issue that we need to create durable and robust food production systems that are quickly adaptable to new environments, whatever the cause. I also note that the old sun spots argument has died off, if there is a con it is that the general population cannot see the similarities between the lead in petrol and smoking campiagns.
Posted by the lorax, 30/03/2009 4:58:01 PM
The lorax and other alarmists please note; FACTS about CARBON DIOXIDE: Of the 186 billion tons of CO2 that enter earth's atmosphere each year from all sources, only 6 billion tons are from human activity. Approximately 90 billion tons come from biologic activity in earth's oceans and another 90 billion tons from such sources as volcanoes and decaying land plants. At 368 parts per million CO2 is a minor constituent of earth's atmosphere -- less than 4/100ths of 1% of all gases present. Compared to former geologic times, earth's current atmosphere is CO2- impoverished.

CO2 is odorless, colorless, and tasteless. Plants absorb CO2 and emit oxygen as a waste product. Humans and animals breathe oxygen and emit CO2 as a waste product. Carbon dioxide is a nutrient, not a pollutant, and all life -- plants and animals alike -- benefit from more of it. All life on earth is carbon-based and CO2 is an essential ingredient. When plant-growers want to stimulate plant growth, they introduce more carbon dioxide. CO2 that goes into the atmosphere does not stay there but is continually recycled by terrestrial plant life and earth's oceans -- the great retirement home for most terrestrial carbon dioxide. If we are in a global warming crisis today, even the most aggressive and costly proposals for limiting industrial carbon dioxide emissions would have a negligible effect on global climate!

Posted by Dick, 31/03/2009 10:54:10 AM
Science is about asking questions - finding scientific answers usually raises many more questions. "What fuels the debate isn't zeal for scientific logic. It's complex and intangible human things like identity, attachment to ideas, and pride." This passage from Matt's blog hits the nail on the head. The roman emperor known as caligula once led an entire Roman army into the sea, where they were ordered to stab at the water with their weapons, he then led them out again declaring a glorious victory against the god Neptune. Let's hope historians in a couple of thousand years don't look back and see such folly in our ridiculous schemes.
Posted by rod, 31/03/2009 11:03:56 AM
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Matt Cawood is based in the NSW New England region and is the science and environment writer for the Rural Press group of weekly agricultural newspapers.
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