Opinion

Consulting the tea leaves, post-flood

Rural Press science and environment writer Matthew Cawood peers into the future to find out what comes next following the floods.

The "mining vs. farmland" fight will be effectively over in Queensland. Agriculture's cows aren't a patch on the mining cash cow when it comes to earning revenue for the State, and the Queensland State government will be looking for all the rebuilding cash it can get. Here come the frackers.

Strap on your toolbags. Towns need to be rebuilt at the same time as contract-bound miners ramp up billions of dollars in investment in the Surat and Bowen basins. Who gets the builders?

Re. the above two points: agriculture may have had a tough time with skilled labour in the past, but it 'ain't nothing to what's coming.

The debate over water quantity will temporarily quieten, but the discussion on water quality is about to begin. The Reef and the Murray-Darling system are about to get unthinkable volumes of water, carrying not only oil-tanker loads of sediment but sewerage, oil, fuel, dead livestock, farm chemicals, sofas and soft toys. Perhaps it will all be a drop of unpleasantness in an ocean of floodwater. I'm glad I'm not drinking it, though.

Sales of insect repellent will hit all-time highs. Queensland and northern NSW have become one big swamp. Living with the other inhabitants of the swamp for the next few months might be tougher than coping with a flood.

It will be a bad time for vegetarians. Or worse, fruitarians. The grocery sections of supermarkets are already looking sparse. On the other hand, it will be a great time to be a greens-hating kid.

Re. the above: farmers will get a bit more love. Bananas and lettuce and mangoes won't appear automagically on the shop shelves. Wait, someone actually *grows* that stuff?

It will be a good time to be in the tyre business. And the sump-repair business. And the wheel bearing business. Queensland's wrecked roads will give an economic boost to anyone listed under "Motor" in the Yellow Pages. Providing they haven't been wrecked, as well.

The economics of GM cotton will be put to the test. Colossal insect pressure will help it prove its worth, or GM royalty payments on poor or unharvested crops will hurt. Monsanto's "end-point" royalty scheme will get a workout.

It's not over. The warmest Australian oceans on record, and one of the warmest spells in the global atmospheric record, mean lots of moisture in the air around Australia, while one of the strongest La Nina events on record conveys that moisture inland. We haven't even had a decent cyclone yet.

Don't put your carpets back.