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 $A below US90¢ on moderate rate rise 

$A below US90¢ on moderate rate rise

04 Nov, 2009 08:23 AM
Disappointment on overseas money markets that yesterday's rate rise was a quarter percentage point rather than the speculated half percentage point has sent the dollar back below US90¢.

It dropped nearly US1¢ in the hour after the Reserve Bank announced it was lifting the target for the official cash rate to 3.25 per cent.

After edging up from there, it took another hit when European trading opened last night, selling at US89.50¢.

It had traded as high as US90.94¢ just before the rates announcement.

Ironically, it was the high dollar that dissuaded the RBA from going for a half-percentage-point rise, according to St George Bank market economist Amanda Tan.

The dollar's strength meant a quarter percentage point was all that was needed to stem inflation.

"[The RBA] noted that 'the rise in the exchange rate is likely to constrain output in the tradeables sector and dampen price pressures'," Ms Tan said in a note to clients.

"In other words, the high Australian dollar could be argued to have done part of the central bank's job."

The RBA's accompanying statement did not give a strong indication of whether rates would rise again before Christmas, Ms Tan said, and this was dampening offshore enthusiasm for the dollar.

Money market analysts, who forecast future borrowing costs, expect interest rates to reach 3.75 per cent in December and 4.5 per cent by June 2010, according to St George's economics team.

ANZ and Commonwealth Banks were the first to raise their interest rates yesterday, prompting the Federal Government to remind mortgage payers that low interest rates were a sign of a distressed economy.

Commonwealth Bank shares gained 37¢ to $51.28 while ANZ lost 1¢ to close at $22.58.

Westpac, which will announce its full-year earnings today, fell 16¢ to $25.43 and NAB gave up 51¢ to $$28.39.

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Date: Newest first | Oldest first
Lucy, Interesting post. The rate rise was expected I guess. We are all waiting to see what happens with the next predicted rise. What I find a bit galling is how quickly they passed on the rate rise. But this is only part of the story, we did some number crunching at work and we worked out that if the big 4 had passed on the 1% cut in February as fast as they acted this month (raising rates), borrowers could have saved as much as $80 million. You can read the whole blog post here: http://blog.mozo.com.au/2009/11/0 5/big-4-banks-cup-day-interest-ra te-rise-was-faster-than-ever/133 ultimately it’s always seems to be the consumer that loses out! Cheers, Andrew
Posted by Andrew Burger, 15/11/2009 9:11:24 PM

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