The head of the Federal Government's climate change review, Ross Garnaut, has warned that Australia is likely to face a world tariff war driven by Europe and the US over greenhouse gas emissions unless there is a strong global agreement to prevent climate change.
"We've had the Energy Secretary in the United States speaking favourably about additional import duties on products from countries that aren't doing enough on climate change. That echoes a very strong sentiment from the US Congress," said Professor Garnaut at the Greenhouse 2009 conference in Perth yesterday.
"The problem is if every country goes through its own processes to develop protective mechanisms we'll get a race to the bottom."
This would damage the trade system and the fight against climate change.
Professor Garnaut issued his warning as the Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, was on his way to Washington to meet the President, Barack Obama, to discuss the global financial crisis and climate change.
Professor Garnaut said Australia, with its big polluting exports such as aluminium and coal, would find a tariff war over climate change very difficult.
His comments come as the Government finds itself under attack from all sides over its climate change policy, the carbon pollution reduction scheme.
As industry hardens its opposition and increases calls for more compensation, it appears likely the scheme might not be passed before global climate talks begin in Copenhagen in December.
Professor Garnaut said such a defeat would create big difficulties for Australia.
He criticised lobby groups and politicians who, he said, were making ignorant statements about climate change policy.
He said the debate in Australia had recently been disproportionately claimed by "the private interest, the ignorant, the myopic and the excessive".
Asked to explain whom he meant, Professor Garnaut said: "There is no need to name names. One can recognise ignorance when one sees it. This is a complex issue and people need to invest some time and intellectual effort in understanding it."
He told the conference of about 500 scientists, industry figures and policymakers the financial crisis had made the politics of acting on climate change much more difficult as industry stepped up its opposition and concerns grew about the market's ability to cut greenhouse gas emissions through trading.
But the global slowdown had also cut emissions, Professor Garnaut said, which would give the world a few years' respite.
But because emissions were coming off a very high base, they would continue to rise "at a considerable rate", he said.
Professor Garnaut said Australia should support an emissions trading scheme starting in 2010, putting him at odds with the call by the Opposition Leader, Malcolm Turnbull, to delay the scheme until 2012.
But he warned against giving unlimited protection to the highest polluting export industries, saying it would force Europe and the US to do the same.
The conference will hear from scientists giving the latest Australian research on the impact of climate change on agriculture, human health and coastal communities from rising temperatures, lower rainfall, higher bushfire risk and rising sea levels.
Of acute concern is whether the El Nino weather pattern which brings drought to south-eastern Australia may become permanent.
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