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Financial crisis slashes ag commodity prices

20 Jul, 2009 02:32 PM
The panic emerging from the global financial crisis has had a significant impact on global agricultural commodity prices, with the latest Westpac-NFF Commodity Index showing a 12.7 per cent decrease over the past year.

However, the National Farmers' Federation reports that recent indications are that the fluctuating price movements of the past 12 months amongst global commodity prices are dissipating as traditional demand and supply forces re-emerge.

"The world economy is beginning to pull out of one of the most severe recessions of the past sixty years," Westpac senior agribusiness economist Andrew Hanlan said.

"The International Monetary Fund has upgraded its world growth forecast for 2010 to a modest 2.5pc, up from 1.9pc previously.

"As the risks of another bout of global disruption recede markets are broadening their focus."

Mr Hanlan said the changed conditions meant that industry could now refocus on individual commodity trends that were "largely irrelevant in the wake of the global financial crisis".

"We are now starting to see both long and short term opportunities arising for individual agricultural commodities, particularly for barley and sugar – where relatively tight market conditions are supporting global prices," he said.

However, the overall Westpac-NFF Commodity Index declined by 3.1pc in June, as the Australian dollar rose by 5pc against the US dollar on increasing market optimism.

The Index is now 12.7pc lower than a year ago.

The commodities suffering falls were beef (-2.1pc), dairy (-3.4pc), wheat (-4.5pc), sugar (-2.4pc), cotton (-8.6pc), canola (-2.5pc).

But defying the overall trend was a sharp rebound in barley prices, jumping 10pc in the month.

"It is notable that markets are now placing greater emphasis on predictions of falling global barley production in key exporting countries," Mr Hanlan said.

NFF vice president Charles Burke the growing conditions during June alo looked solid in the major agricultural production regions, but this had translated into lower prices as supply prospects improve.

"Australian farmers still firmly believe that the medium to long term outlook for our products are strong, despite the decrease for all but barley prices during June," Mr Burke said.

"This will become more evident as the global economy continues on its road to recovery."

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Date: Newest first | Oldest first
Just when farmers need a collective bargining system to market our export wheat to maximise returns we don't have it. Who do we send the bill to? Labor our Liberal party? The farm gate price for milk has dropped dramatically but has failed to drop at the shop. As always it is the producer and the consumer who pay and the middlemen prosper just like the grain market.
Posted by Fred, 21/07/2009 6:41:45 AM

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Barley prices have defied the trend in agricultural commodity markets, lifting 10pc in the last month.
Barley prices have defied the trend in agricultural commodity markets, lifting 10pc in the last month.
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20 July, 2009
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Q: Do you agree with the ACCC's finding that last year's spike in the price of fertiliser was due to normal market forces?

Yes
(13%)

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(81.8%)

Undecided
(5.2%)

Total Votes: 499
Poll Date: 19 July, 2009

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