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 The world could soon be hungry for our rural assets 

The world could soon be hungry for our rural assets

05 Apr, 2010 06:32 AM
BOOM, financial meltdown, crisis, recession. For the past two years, the world has been in the thrall of the greatest challenge ever to confront modern capitalism.

In the developed world, we have been consumed by concerns over employment and the potential for social unrest, which again have been inflamed by worries over the prospect of default on debts by governments.

But the unfolding drama in the ego-inflated world of high finance distracted attention from an equally worrying dilemma - with an identical acronym - that may be even more challenging for global security.

In less developed economies, the GFC has been a problem for more than five years. In their case, however, the ''F'' stands for food. And the question on the lips of many developing countries' leaders is: will there be enough to sustain a rapidly growing global population?

It is a question that raised its head midway through the decade, as food prices experienced their steepest rise in 30 years, sparking food riots in some countries that saw the overthrow of governments and offering opportunities for others.

A number of factors contributed to this. Rising populations, encroaching urbanisation on to agricultural land, a switch from food production to biofuels, stagnating agricultural yields and a rapid lift in wealth in Asia leading to increased food demand.

Boil all that down and what you end up with is reduced supply and increased demand. And that means higher prices.

Unfortunately, given the history of government and bureaucratic interference in agricultural markets and trade from the richest nations to the very poorest, it is unlikely that even the spectre of widespread famine will jolt the international community into achieving worthwhile reform in the near term.

When it comes to agriculture, the General Agreement of Tariffs and Trade has seen no agreement, neither in specific or general terms, for decades, just continual bickering and a promise to meet again in a few years.

As one of the world's biggest exporters of food, Australia has the potential to be a major influence on developing a global solution to what is a looming international problem. At the very least, we are in a position to capitalise on an expected increased demand for higher-quality food in the region.

For most of the past decade, our place in the international pecking order has been defined almost exclusively by our mineral and energy resources.

It has dominated economic news and been foremost in the minds of our leaders. All those bulk carriers, steaming north from ports in Queensland, NSW and West Australia to a rapidly growing China, underpinned our wealth and saved us from the recession that has ravaged the rest of the developed world.

For many years, it was thought that our mining success would squeeze out our rural exporters by pushing our currency higher. But our rural industries have survived and, with water now spreading across the interior, face at least two years of strong production.

Despite being a major contributor to export earnings, rural Australia always has taken a much lower profile.

To a large extent that is because the fundamental unit of production within agriculture is the family. Family farms overwhelmingly dominate rural production in Australia, as in other developed countries.

The vagaries of the weather, and gyrating commodity prices has put broadacre dryland cropping and grazing beyond the acceptable risks that most corporations can bear.

The family-run farm may be a sophisticated operation, highly mechanised and market-savvy.

But a family will work for next to nothing when times are tough and accept dismal returns that a corporation simply cannot tolerate.

Big companies usually are involved only at the service end - providing finance and equipment - or in more highly controlled environments such as feedlot production.

This may be about to change.

Just as our mineral resources have been targeted by foreign buyers attempting to shore up security of supply, our rural industries are likely to be targeted.

The British private equity group Terra Firma last year bought the Packer family's extensive cattle operations in the top end, while the IIFCO group in Dubai took a 20 per cent stake in Australian Agricultural Co when Elders decided to reduce its stake.

More recently, CSR was approached by Chinese group Bright Foods to sell its sugar business, a deal that may be revisited given the Federal Court kyboshed CSR's attempted corporate split.

Accounting firm PPB believes Australian agriculture is an obvious target for further investment.

Our rural assets are still keenly priced when compared with similar operations in North America and New Zealand. And our proximity to an increasingly wealthy Asia, from India through to Japan, holds the promise of higher prices and constant demand.

It's not all bright lights and opportunities, however. The massive price hikes in 2008 created social upheaval in many countries and the overwhelming response - a welcomed return to investment in agriculture - was overshadowed by a worrying return to protectionism.

Under the mantra of ''self-sufficiency'', countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines became determined to bolster their production and eliminate the need for imports. That was in response to rice export bans imposed by Vietnam and Thailand.

For years, the European Union poured massive subsidies into its rural industries, in a cynical vote-winning ploy to achieve the goal of unity. That created huge stockpiles of grain, butter and wine, and put efficient farmers in other countries out of business.

The United Nations is fearful that the storm clouds surrounding global food production, which abated briefly last year, are gathering once again.

It is a storm that will require the same kind of commitment from governments at a global level as they applied to that other, less important, GFC if permanent solutions are to be found.

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comments


Date: Newest first | Oldest first
This is a first class well written article the best Ive seen from the Land. The subject is enormous and understanding is not to be expected till the masses are further educated. Im affraid we are still living under the impression that mining will only expand which it clearly wont. We cant sustain mineral exports like this forever. One day soon China will say enough and forget your paper contracts and thats it! So back to rounding up and feeding cattle with a slight glimmer of hope! Im 67yo can I wait!???
Posted by Jon Noble, 6/04/2010 3:56:11 AM
I hope he is right. At least he understands farming. At 50 and having spent all my life on the land I can say positively that the government have no idea of the level of poverty amongst our own farmers. WE need to have decent incomes to sustain us. Perhaps out time is coming.
Posted by Helen Clark, 6/04/2010 5:41:01 AM
This article raises a number of issues which must be dealt with before it is to late. We must stop the ridiculous habit of planting houses on highly productive land. This is particularly the case with areas used for vegetable production which is often close to capital cities. I realise this does pose financial challenges for the land owners and local government. Secondly, population growth cannot be sustained, otherwise there will be a catastrophe of monumental proportions. One doesn't keep all lambs and calves from each years production, otherwise one would quickly run out of feed, and there would be considerable environmental degradation. Therefore there needs to be serious consideration to population limits.
Posted by ggwagga, 6/04/2010 6:18:26 AM
We can import food - we don't need to grow it here, so we don't need farmers, those environmental vandals pillaging the pristine "outback" beyond the eastern escarpment of the Great Dividing Range. We can keep selling coal and iron ore to pay for it. At least that seems to be the relatively unchallenged short-term view of decision makers. WAKE UP AUSTRALIA ! - food security is no less important than water security.
Posted by AJ, 6/04/2010 6:36:06 AM
Unfortunately "GFC" will see consumers pay more and all the middle men will reap the profits while the producers will still be paid the bare minimum. We need an "OPEC" type of organisation for farm gate commodities. But that won't happen. I don't think i will live long enough to see the global food crisis reap me any rewards.
Posted by screwed, 6/04/2010 6:41:42 AM
First I will comment about the article, and as I see it bits were missing. The missing bit was what will cost of production do when this so called agriculture food boom occurs? Last time, costs went through the roof, and I will say the same will occur the time. Another way of saying the same message, is the food producers has been getting a decline share of the retail $, and this will continue, regardless of the price. There will be a lag if food commodity prices make a rapid increase, so maybe the industry will get one profitable year.
Posted by dunart, 6/04/2010 7:04:10 AM
What the agriculture sector needs, is a increased share of the retail $, and this can be done anytime by reduced govt regulation, This reduction in regulation that has been imposed on the agriculture sector needs to be transferred to the domestic economy, and will also have the added benefit of restoring some “equality” in regulation between the two sectors. So sorry Helen, your time will be brief at best, and poverty will continue to rise as your terms of trade decline. ABARE also thinks this will happen as well, so I am not alone in these thoughts. My message is, stop wishing, and start demanding equal treatment for both sides of our trading, i.e. free trade when we sell, and the same free trade when we buy. Sure urban people will not like it, when their protection from the world market is removed and they have to compete against the world market as we do, but it is “fair and free trade”. Do nothing, and the same situation will continue, regardless of farm gate food prices.
Posted by dunart, 6/04/2010 7:06:17 AM
AJ, 6/04/2010 8:36:06 AM,. There are academics in Australia who preach just that. They teach the teachers who teach our kids.
Posted by Ted O'Brien, 6/04/2010 8:40:27 PM
Selling the farms to foreign investors is not the answer... we need to sell produce to the foreigner... and pay the farmer sustainable price for produce. Wake up Australia or perish under the inrush... then let's see how all the slifling red tape and retail markup goes. As one very important man said "fair suck of the sauce bottle mate!" There's not much else that he's said that makes a lot of sense though.
Posted by pepper, 12/04/2010 12:32:07 PM

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