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 Batten down: researchers tip 30-year storm phase 

Batten down: researchers tip 30-year storm phase

24 Nov, 2008 11:56 AM
The devastation from last week's brutal storms in south-east Queensland has left the region shell-shocked, but new research indicates this type of weather could be the norm for the next 30 years.

A study by coastal planning researcher Peter Helman says the east coast of Australia has entered a new weather phase during which regular rain, wind and damaging storms will follow recent years of drought.

Dr Helman and retired Bureau of Meteorology extreme weather forecaster Jeff Callaghan spent the past decade tracking weather patterns dating back more than 200 years by reading diaries and accounts from pioneers such as Captain Cook.

Plotting weather patterns on a timeline, they found Australia's climate has two distinct phases lasting about 30 or 40 years.

"We can see there are periods of storms and floods that last for a few decades, such as the decades leading up to . . . the 1974 floods in Brisbane," Dr Helman said.

"They are followed by a period of very little rainfall and plenty of drought, which we've definitely seen here in the last 30 years."

He said the wet and dry phases were affected by variations.

Timelines were not precise, but the study over about 200 years showed a clear distinction between the two.

"What has happened [last] week with the storms in south-east Queensland does not mark the start of decades of storms but it does indicate the change in climate is under way," he said.

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The seasons have changed. In the past 30 years we have rarely had an uncomfortable hot night. At the moment nights are hot. I do not believe in man made global warming but I do believe in changing climate because in the last 65 years it is always different, never constant. Usually very hot weather precedes good thunderstorms with good rainfall. My father before me made the observation that if we get wet summers we get little winter rain and vice versa. Also if N.Q. gets good winter rain Victoria misses out.
Posted by Richie 10, 25/11/2008 9:57:13 AM
Yeh, yeah, climate change has always been happening. There is nothing new under the sun. Can we get rid of Garrett, Wong and all those Al Gore look alikes who are out to control and scare people and put Peter Helman in charge. Australia is obviously not getting hotter and dryer - it is getting colder and wetter! Keep sending her down Hughie! We have a Murray Darling basin to fill up and lots of reclaimed swamps on coastlines to turn back into swamps for our fish! We have just had 4 inches, and I say "Heavenly Pa; Ta". And to my city cousins who keep telling me how to run my land I say look to your own backyard. Knock that big gum tree down before Hughie blows it on your house! Plant a fire safe wind proof deciduous tree & let the children and grandkids play safely on the lawn under it.
Posted by Common Cents, 25/11/2008 10:11:42 AM
This is typical alarmist rhetoric. The Alarmists will try and match anything to what ever is happening. This keeps their research funding coming in.
Posted by Len, 25/11/2008 12:25:42 PM
Like Richie I do not believe all the hype that has been going on regarding Global Warning - it is a lot of consultants making big money out of writing nonsense reports. Just cast your mind back to the year 2000 and all the rubbish that was going on re computers and all that stuff. I know several consultants and computer people who made a fortune out of all this.
Posted by kernb, 25/11/2008 12:50:19 PM
Common Cents...my thoughts exactly. That was a fantastic comment. I nearly fell off my chair laughing. We need more replies like this.
Posted by Ben F., 25/11/2008 10:55:37 PM
As a computer systems engineer and farmer the world was correct in staying on the side of caution in 2000 - it was not hype. As for Global warming there is much scientific evidence to say that it comes in cycles, that is correct. However, in the stored history of the polar ice caps gases there has never ever been an increase in CO2 as there is now by a factor of 300%? Not withstanding there are other gaes that have increased just as bad if not worse that CO2. It is akin to slowly winding all the windows up in your car in 40 degrees. You will cook and die just as we are doing now. Do the pundits think that the collective intelligence of our scientist are wrong, such as CSIRO. Forget politics the problem is bigger than that group of people. Let's get our your facts right and do something about it. It is more alarming to think that with all the evidence in that there are individuals that still think like this? Don’t you realise we are deep, deep trouble!
Posted by TIW, 26/11/2008 7:24:53 AM
TIW, you correctly state that CO2 is going up, but in the last 10 years while CO2 has rapidly increased the temperature has not.

I think cause and effect needs to come into play here - there is no linkage between CO2 and climate demonstrated.

CO2 is plant food anyway - bring it on!

Posted by DMS, 27/11/2008 6:11:33 PM

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