Let me get this right. SW Qld is under water, Lake Eyre will be full for the second year in a row, a cyclone just crossed the coast, and BoM are telling us it is a classic El Nino with neutral IOD? Better go back to interpreting chooks guts, fellas.

It's one of those cases of known unknowns, and unknown unknowns. When it comes to the weather and climate in general, it looks like there are still a few unknown unknowns out there. The science of climate and weather forecasting. Was progressing along quite nicely with, increasingly accurate forecasts, within realistic timeframe's. When in order to drive a preconceived political agenda. The scientists political masters told them to imply a level of accuracy, within extended timeframes. That simply wasn't possible, and it has been all downhill since then.