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Morality meals the future for agriculture

02 Nov, 2008 04:24 PM
Wholegrain bread, free-range eggs and fair-trade chocolate: these are some of the items you're likely to see in the average shopping trolley in five years, according to industry analysts.

They are also tipping an increased consumer acceptance of genetically modified foods.

These predictions are in a report by IBISWorld that tries to predict what food shoppers will buy in 2013.

Some of the forecasts are surprising: chewing gum is tipped to be a big seller on the back of ads that promote it as good for our teeth and because of declining consumption of sugary confectionery.

Meanwhile, expect an outbreak of ethics in the aisles, with consumers increasingly keen to do the right thing with their food dollar.

IBISWorld chief Robert Bryant says: "Customers are reading labels and buying more products which support their views on ethical consumerism, whether that's items that are not genetically modified or products that haven't been exposed to pesticides or antibiotics or those from sustainable agriculture or fair trade.

"The result is good news for products that address those concerns, such as Green & Black's-label chocolate, fair-trade chocolate or chocolate made from beans produced in a particular country."

An overarching trend that will become more pronounced, IBISWorld says, is an increasing health consciousness - something food manufacturers are only too eager to take advantage of.

Analyst Linda Dougherty says this increased health awareness is due to rising obesity levels, a decrease in physical activity, increased health-care costs and an ageing population.

"We're always hearing about research saying this product will have such an effect on your health. That will lead to demand for lower-fat, lower-calorie products," she says.

The message from mums everywhere - "eat your vegies if you want to grow up big and strong" - is getting through to more people.

Your future shopping trolley is likely to contain more vegetables but probably in a ready-to-eat form.

The shopper of the future doesn't want to stuff around peeling spuds or washing salad.

Bryant says the health benefits of eating vegetables have contributed to their growing popularity.

"Innovative and more convenient packaging is also a major factor, such as the availability of pre-cut vegetables, pre-prepared salad leaves and mixed bags of stir-fry vegetables or soup ingredients, making them much more appealing for today's time-poor shoppers."

Analysts tip wholegrain bread to make a strong comeback as the popularity of low- and no-carbohydrate regimes such as the Atkins Diet begins to fade.

It doesn't take a crystal ball to realise climate change will probably become an unpleasant reality for most Australians and we're likely to alter our eating habits in response.

Government-appointed climate adviser Ross Garnaut sparked vigorous debate recently with his suggestion we should eat more kangaroo meat.

One of the reasons this makes sense is the amount of environmentally harmful methane emitted by cattle and sheep.

And if agriculture is included in the proposed emissions-trading scheme, you can expect to see a lot more pork and poultry - and perhaps even kangaroo - consumed instead of beef or lamb.

"We'd see rising meat production costs, lower output and consumption and higher prices," Bryant says.

"Under an emissions scheme, demand is forecast to shift away from lamb and beef towards poultry and pig-meat products."

Analysts are also predicting there will be more GM produce in the shopping trolley of the future.

Bryant points to current trials of GM pineapples, papayas and grapes.

"People are coming around to the idea of GM foods, especially as they learn more about the way GM crops can address environmental concerns such as drought, climate change, rising salinity levels and fuel shortages.

"Conversely, we're also likely to see continued growth in demand for organic produce because for those who object to GM food, going organic is one sure way to avoid eating it."

In the shorter term, the massive downturn in the world economy means shoppers will be likely to pull in their belts for a while at least.

In the near future, expect to see cask wine and own-brand groceries stage a strong comeback as well as domestic beers and cheaper protein products such as chicken and eggs.

"We also expect to see less willingness to pay for premium attributes [for the next two years] such as organic products and ethical products," Dougherty says.

"More people are expected to make their own meals at home instead of dining out - and to look for lower-priced dining options when they do go out."

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I am very interested to meet anyone who suggests kangaroo will replace beef and lamb to find out how they think this will work, what their experience is and what level maths they did at school.
Posted by Rusty, 2/11/2008 2:29:26 PM
This is a contradictory report of little value. It picks two trends - ethics (growing) and economics (shrinking) - and makes simple extrapolations as though history moves in straight lines. The trends contradict each other. Such futurism has failed in most cases in the past. Where is the paperless office, the 30 hour week, the early retirement? All predictions by futurists made so far in the past they can never be held accountable for their mistakes. If you want to see the future study human nature and history. In these sources of knowledge you will see why we will fail to stop Climate Change causing greater havoc in our society than any fnancial crisis could. The list of civilisations that collapsed because they extracted more from the natural resource base than it could sustainably deliver is long. The number of cases in which mankind put longterm benefits ahead of short term greed are few. History is bulging with incidents where humans denied that disaster was coming until it arrived. As for governments' track record of bad decisions in the face of emergencies such as climate change, Good Luck to all of us. Read more at www.carbonfarming.net.com
Posted by Michael Kiely, 3/11/2008 3:19:21 AM
On what basis does the writer base the opinion that consumers will be foolish enough to begin accepting GMOs? This assumption is completely baseless and misleading. The more consumers learn of the dangers of GM the less likely they are of accepting this obnoxious technology.
Posted by ggwagga, 3/11/2008 4:37:20 AM
Don't kangaroos fart too! If one eats vegetables there must be a fermentation process to convert this to protein (muscle). Once upon a time kangaroos did not need to drink like sheep. Now they need a gallon a day. I reckon we will discover as time goes on that they fart too!
Posted by Common Cents, 3/11/2008 6:18:03 AM
While IBISWorld has a respected position as to its consumer trend predictions and, hopefully, this article is only a part-extract of a more detailed paper as it reads a little to simplistically when measured against the magnitude of the topic theme. My comments below are based on past macro-retail involvement as well as being a 'food-dollar' and/or a 'soil & pasture enhancer' today. Volumes have been scribed about the 'staple' of food and this will only continue as 'food-dollar' consumers become increasingly more introspective (maybe a conduit to today's time-poor shoppers) and aided by the plethora of guru forecasters who are usually, in some commercial way, skewed by their benefactors or sponsors. The stark omission in this article is the fact that reams of anecdotal research and evidence exist, which articulates that 'fruit and vegies' have dramatically less nutritional ingredients and value than their yesteryear cousins due to production modifications, chemical assistance/effect and enduring storage practices - how much more do we have to eat to maintain a 'steady-state' of health than then? Perhaps, paradoxically, this article is headlined 'Morality meals ....' followed by 'ethics in the aisles' but at the same time acknowledging the profound existence of 'pesticides and antibiotics' accompanied by predictions of a 'shift' 'towards 'poultry and pig-meat products' both of which are heavily reliant on antibiotics. There may very well be a real correlation between contributing 'obesity levels' and 'antibiotics' in the food-chain especially in these two food groups. 'Necessity is the mother of invention' (proverbs) or in this case re-invention and as such may deliver 'home-grown' staples such as fruit, vegies, chicken and eggs in the back garden or on the unit balcony. An extention to this 'new age' niche of ethically produced volume goods is the further growth of consumer driven community markets, unless of course the macro retailer lobby groups manipulate restrictive legislation to outlaw such enterprises and further encapsulate their holistic market position. One could attempt to address each and every cliched sub-topic mentioned in this article, such as 'fair-trade chocolate', 'health-care costs, 'aging population', 'climate change', 'harmful cattle & sheep methane', 'ETS' and 'GM' but I am not a guru, so I will leave it to the experts.......! So it would appear that IBISWorld chief, Robert Bryant's work is not quite complete in this regard. Cheers.
Posted by Clark Goodwin, 3/11/2008 7:09:49 AM
Rusty: kangaroo is already making inroads into our family's red-meat diet. Regarding your question about qualifications, I have a PhD, but unit pricing will make it even more obvious to all that kanga is currently cheaper than beef - only some people cannot cook it. Try some kanga rissoles (unlike beef, it needs eggs to bind) or finely-sliced steak in stir-frys. Re kangaroo farts, I am not sure, but as far as I know, they belch less (different stomach), and that makes a difference. ggwagga: we are already eating GM food, mostly second mouth. Although potential future technologies carry large potential risks, there is no proof that current ones pose health risks. The Yanks have been eating GM for decades, and no problems.
Posted by family chef, 3/11/2008 10:47:11 AM
Re: family chef. "We" does not include me or my family - I'm well aware of the risks with GM and avoid it like the plague.

"We" may well include those who don't care what they eat. If you're a chef, as your handle would infer, you have a responsibility to prepare clean wholesome meals - this certainly does not include GMOs.

Yes, the Yanks may be consuming GMOs, most are completely oblivious to the fact.

Your assumption of "no problems" is completely ignorant to the reality. Food allergies have gone through the roof in the same period. The world will be a better place when GMOs are removed.

Posted by ggwagga, 3/11/2008 2:48:26 PM
Kangaroo harvesting requires more fossil fuel consumption than does beef or mutton, and the vehicles used to harvest kangaroos compact the ground more.

The people who expound some of these theories have no practical knowledge of what they preach.

Posted by Brindi, 3/11/2008 5:29:48 PM
Just a quick question for Clark Goodwin. Where does the idea that "There may very well be a real correlation between contributing 'obesity levels' and 'antibiotics' in the food-chain especially in these two food groups." Come from? I'd appreciate knowing the source.
Posted by Curious farmer, 4/11/2008 7:30:12 AM
Eating more kangaroo meat will not "solve" anything. They would soon be down the extinction trail, like most native animals in Australia.

They do not grow or reproduce like sheep or cattle. They cannot be "farmed" and they only have a small amount of human quality meat. We would have to be completely "overrun" by millions of roos to supply red meat people eat and export.

Posted by Bob, 5/11/2008 10:23:52 AM
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