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 Warmest since records began: 2009 

Warmest since records began: 2009

29 Jan, 2010 12:47 PM
NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) has placed 2009 as the warmest year in the Southern Hemisphere since records began 130 years ago, and the past decade as the warmest globally.

Globally, 2009 tied with 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006 and 2007 as the second warmest year on record after 2005, according to the GISS analysis of planetary temperatures.

The decade from January 2000 to December 2009 was clearly the warmest since modern instrumentation was introduced in 1880.

"There's substantial year-to-year variability of global temperature caused by the tropical El Nino-La Nina cycle", said GISS director James Hansen.

"But when we average temperature over five or ten years to minimize that variability, we find that global warming is continuing unabated."

Over the past three decades, according to the GISS analysis, the global average temperature has increased 0.2 degrees Celsius a decade.

The Australian Bureau of Meterology (BoM) is waiting on the results of a similar analysis by the UK Met Office's Hadley Centre, which BoM has traditionally used as a guide to global temperature trends.

The Hadley Centre analysis tends to be more conservative than GISS, according to BoM senior climatologist Dr Karl Braganza, because Hadley scientists leave out areas of the Arctic and Antarctic where climate monitoring stations are scarce.

GISS extrapolates data for these areas from the nearest monitoring stations in an attempt to deliver a fuller climate picture.

In the Hadley analysis, polar areas without monitoring stations are assumed to be warming at the same rate as the global average. GISS incorporates sea ice data from satellites that indicates the Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the planet.

Dr Braganza said while the two methods produce slightly different results - although often within a tenth or a hundredth of a degree - both show the same global warming trend.

A key driver of natural climate variability is the El Nino-La Nina cycle, which stems from the cyclic warming and cooling of the Pacific Ocean.

GISS and BoM climatologists believe the El Nino of late 2009 combined with greenhouse gas-driven warming to produce an unusually warm year in 2009.

"The unusual thing about this El Nino when it got going around mid-2009 was that Pacific ocean temperatures were already very warm, which was likely a continuation of the greenhouse warming effect," Dr Braganza said.

That warmth across the Pacific generated rain, which counteracted the usual El Nino drying effect on eastern Australia for several months. But as the year went on, across eastern Australia as a whole it was very dry.

"Tasmania got some good rainfall, and Victoria had two or three rainfall events, but they were just weather events. Typically during an El Nino we get less of them.

"When you are talking about climate, you're talking about what history can tell you might happen over a particular stretch of time--but during an El Nino, you can still get a good rainall event coming through with the normal weather that gives a bit of relief."

The global warming trend, which is reflected in the warming of the Australian temperature record, appears to be continuing despite the deepest recorded solar minimum.

During solar maximums, high sunspot activity is generally correlated with higher surface temperatures on Earth. Solar minimums, or low sunspot activity, are generally related to cooler temperatures, but this is not the case during the current minimum.

Aerosols, particularly sulfate aerosols produced by volcanoes, are also known to cool global temperature by reflecting sunlight, but aerosols appear not to have played a significant role during 2009.

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When are we going to hear how the extreme winters in both North America and Europe have measured up against the COLDEST winters in the Northern Hemisphere ??
Posted by For All Seasons . . ., 30/01/2010 7:51:50 AM
Yeah and they've been caught fudging the figures upward as well.
Posted by alph, 30/01/2010 4:11:33 PM
Haven't you lot sorted out your brains yet, or more basically, done a modicum of simple research? The whole debate is about climate change and (if I can be forgiven, Jill, if you are listening) I mean CHANGE. The basic argument is that the warming of the world's atmosphere is a factor in creating climate changes throughout the world. No-one, that is no- one who has even the most basic of comprehension, has argued that the only outcome of climate change is that every inch of the world's surface will be affected in the same manner. The concept of colder (than average) outcomes in some locations is perfectly consistent with climate warming. In fact, it is a highly predictable outcome of climate warming.
Posted by Bushie Bill, 31/01/2010 11:03:22 AM
Unusually cold spells in Dec/Jan in parts of the northern hemisphere... but not all (heatwaves in Alaska, Greenland, Arctic for example). http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/ IOTD/view.php?id=42260
Posted by GT, 31/01/2010 12:11:19 PM
Warmest in 130 years? So what. The planet is 4.5 billion years old. Come back when you've got a case fellahs, pehaps in another billion years.
Posted by Mountain out of molehill., 1/02/2010 4:42:41 AM
2009 was the equal second-warmest year on record (globally speaking). http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research /news/20100121/ Those who are claiming that we are in a cooling period - get your heads out of the sand. And the earth is round, by the way.
Posted by skeptic, 1/02/2010 5:49:18 AM
I agree and nicely put Bushie but mountain I have no idea how far your head is stuck in the ground. Yes the planet is old but a key point you need to recognise is over that period the climate has changed significantly numerous times and as a consequence so has the flora and fauna through natural selection. How do you think 5 billion humans will cope with drastically less food? Dinosaurs were wiped out by a major event which impacted on the planets environment which changed the flora. This is a dramatic comparison but small changes in the environment can have dramatic long term impacts. Humans haven't been around that long, only recently topping the food chain but something else will come along afterwards if we fail to adapt.
Posted by JC, 1/02/2010 6:35:09 AM
ok so the climate is changing, still. It has been changing everyday since the planet was created. Given that how is it that paying for an ETS is going to solve anything. The solutions are much simpler than these scare mongers would have you believe and yet the media is not prepared to give any of it air time. Let's for one moment suppose that all the predictions are correct, what is the delay?? We need to act now, not engage in all this grandstanding that Wong, Rudd and co are participating in. The less action this lot take the more I question the reality of their claims. Do something or get out, stop the grandstanding!
Posted by Katandra, 1/02/2010 6:48:09 AM
Regarding those cold winters in the northern hemisphere - they were caused by a movement of arctic air southward. Arctic air is cold, so it reduced the temperatures in Europe. But that air was replaced in the arctic itself by warmer air. The results was that Europe was 8 degrees colder than usual, and the arctic was warmer by the same amount. The significance for global temperature? None.
Posted by chris johnson, 1/02/2010 6:48:11 AM
The climate is always changing, nothing is constant. The debate is whether the change is caused by man's contribution of his CO2 emissions. The socialists in conjunction with the UN have rewritten The Perodic Table by declaring CO2 as a pollutant. Co2 is a colourless odourless gas, the earth's atmosphere has contained ten times the amount of CO2 than is present today and man was not industrialised then or even present and yet the Earth has survived. The debate has been about the effect of CO2 in warming, the claims that CO2 creates warming is false as temperature raises the level of CO2 in our atmosphere, not CO2 raising the temperature. By man attempting to reduce the amount of CO2 will send man back to caveman days and many will face food shortages.
Posted by Alan Mears, 1/02/2010 7:25:13 AM
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