SUPPORT for Kevin Rudd and his flagship policy, the emissions trading scheme, has fallen sharply following the failure of the Copenhagen climate change conference and Tony Abbott's ascension to the opposition leadership.
The latest Herald/Nielsen poll also shows although the Coalition has made significant inroads into Labor's support, the Government would still win an election comfortably if it were held now.
The poll - the first conducted by the Herald since Mr Abbott replaced Malcolm Turnbull on December 1 - sampled 1400 voters from Thursday night to Saturday night following a week of robust parliamentary debate over climate change.
Mr Rudd's rating as preferred prime minister has plunged 9 points to 58 per cent since the last poll in late November, while Mr Abbott is favoured by 31 per cent of voters, 10 points higher than Mr Turnbull's final rating.
For the previous 18 months, support for an ETS was steady at two-thirds of voters, or 66 per cent. But the latest poll shows that since late November, support has dived 10 points to 56 per cent, while opposition to the ETS has risen 4 points from 25 per cent to 29 per cent.
After Mr Abbott deposed Mr Turnbull, he immediately abandoned Coalition support for an ETS, branded it a ''great big tax'' and, last week, announced a rival scheme in which businesses would voluntarily reduce emissions in return for taxpayer-funded payments.
The poll finds 45 per cent prefer Mr Abbott's emissions reduction fund while 39 per cent support Mr Rudd's ETS.
However, Mr Rudd retains more credibility on climate change than Mr Abbott. When asked whose broad approach to climate change they supported most, 43 per cent of voters backed Mr Rudd while 30 per cent backed Mr Abbott.
''One thing that hasn't changed is the relatively high level of confusion in the electorate about climate-change policy,'' the Nielsen pollster John Stirton said.
The poll shows Labor leading the Coalition on a two-party-preferred basis by 54 per cent to 46 per cent. The Coalition's primary vote has shot up 4 points to 41 per cent, while Labor's has stayed steady at 42 per cent.
Mr Rudd's approval rating fell 6 points to a still high 60 per cent while his disapproval rose 4 points to 33 per cent.
Mr Abbott's approval rating was 44 per cent, which is 3 points higher than the final rating of his predecessor, and his disapproval rating was 41 per cent, 10 points up on Mr Turnbull's final showing.
''This is a good start for Mr Abbott but the Opposition has a way to go,'' Mr Stirton said. ''If an election were held now, the Rudd government would be returned with its majority largely intact.''
With internal polling showing similar results, Mr Abbott told the ABC yesterday he was not getting carried away. ''We've made a good start but that's all you can say,'' he said.
Mr Turnbull will speak today in support of the ETS and is under pressure from colleagues to abstain from voting rather than cross the floor. Mr Abbott said yesterday he would prefer Mr Turnbull did not cross the floor but he was free to do so. ''My argument is with Kevin Rudd, not Malcolm Turnbull.''
The Government is pressing ahead with its ETS but is looking to change the subject to health and the economy and yesterday it began targeting Mr Abbott and his finance spokesman, Barnaby Joyce, as economic risks, citing the emissions fund as an example.
''Mr Abbott [is] a big economic risk … a risk on climate change and a risk to the economy,'' the Deputy Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, told the Nine Network. ''You can't, as the alternate prime minister, spit out policies that simply don't add up.''
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