LABOR Party strategists are counting on picking up at least five seats in the Prime Minister's home state of Queensland at the federal election to cement the Rudd Government's dominance going into a second term.
Queensland delivered Kevin Rudd victory at the 2007 election. The eight per cent swing to Labor in that state was the largest of anywhere in the country. It boosted the ALP's representation in Queensland from six seats to 15.
Labor strategists hope to add five seats to their Queensland tally at the election due this year. This would provide a buffer against losses expected in other states, including NSW, where voters disenchanted with the Labor State Government could punish federal Labor.
''We're optimistic about gains [in Queensland],'' one strategist said. ''We're looking at the opportunity to pick up seats to really entrench our dominance in Queensland as the basis of a federal Labor Government.''
Labor's official campaigning has yet to begin in Queensland, where the state secretariat is still to begin preselections, although they are already under way in other states. The secretariat expects to begin preselecting candidates for South-East Queensland seats by the end of the month.
Top of Labor's wish-list for the state are the Townsville seat of Herbert (held by the Liberals but notionally Labor after a redistribution) and the Central Queensland coastal seat of Hinkler (held by the Nationals with a 1.5 per cent margin).
It was rumoured that the Herbert MP, Peter Lindsay, and the Hinkler MP, Paul Neville, who are both in their late 60s, were considering retirement, which would boost Labor's chances.
The party is looking to Brisbane for three seats. Dickson is expected to swing to Labor, which the sitting Liberal MP, Peter Dutton, conceded when he sought preselection for the Gold Coast seat of McPherson. His failed attempt to secure a safer seat is likely to damage his prospects in Dickson (which is now notionally Labor).
The most marginal seat in Queensland, the Brisbane bayside seat of Bowman, is expected to fall to Labor. The Liberal MP, Andrew Laming, sits on a paper-thin margin of 0.005 per cent after redistribution.
Labor is also hoping to wrest the blue ribbon Liberal seat of Ryan from Michael Johnson, who sits on a 1.1 per cent margin. The electorate in Brisbane's western suburbs is a bastion of conservatism but its voters are environmentally conscious and Labor thinks the climate change scepticism of the Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott, could win it votes through the Greens.
On the flipside, Labor is nervous about the Far North Queensland seat of Leichhardt. Its first-term MP, Jim Turnour, will face Warren Entsch, who came out of retirement to recontest the seat he held for a decade.
Labor will also work hard at defending Flynn, Dawson, Longman and Forde, which it holds by less than 3.5 per cent.
The new seat of Wright, inland from the Gold Coast, is being touted as one to watch. Covering traditional Nationals territory, it is likely to be an easy Coalition gain. But pundits say that a Liberal candidate, Hajnal Ban, could go ''rogue'' and enliven the campaign.
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