VOTERS would rather the three country independents side with Julia Gillard and form a minority government than join Tony Abbott and the Coalition, a new poll finds.
It also finds that if Australia went back to the polls, there would be a small shift towards the Coalition but the result would be the same - a hung parliament.
The Telereach-JWS Research Poll of 4192 voters was conducted on Thursday as the Tasmanian independent, Andrew Wilkie, sided with Labor, leaving it with 74 seats and needing two more to form government.
The Coalition is on 73 seats and needs the support of all three rural independents, Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor and Bob Katter.
Senior Liberals feel the momentum shifting towards Labor and their best hope was to exert pressure on the three independents by appealing to their constituents, the majority of whom are conservative.
''I would find it almost inconceivable that the country independents would back a Labor/Green coalition with Bob Brown as the effective deputy prime minister,'' the opposition finance spokesman, Andrew Robb, said. ''It would destroy Australia.''
The JWS poll finds 37 per cent of voters want the rural trio to side with Labor compared with 31 per cent for Mr Abbott, while 26 per cent want another election.
The poll finds that if there were another election, the Coalition would lead on the primary vote by 44.9 per cent to 35.4 per cent, while the Greens would receive 13.8 per cent.
Overall, this would represent an increase nationally in the Coalition's primary vote lead over Labor by 3.9 percentage points. The Coalition would lead on the two-party-preferred vote by 50.4 per cent to 49.6 per cent.
But because of variations in each state, that would result at best in one Labor seat - Greenway in NSW - falling to the Liberals and a hung parliament. The only finding that produced a clear majority was the 59 per cent of voters who expressed concern at the $10.6 billion blowout that Treasury found in the Coalition's policy costings.
''Unless the Coalition can dispel the perception it has a black hole in its election costings, the momentum appears to be with Julia Gillard and Labor to form minority government,'' said the managing director of JWS, John Scales.
The poll found 42 per cent felt a ''Labor-Greens alliance'' would be bad for the country but 43 per cent felt it would be good.
Mr Robb and other Coalition frontbenchers attacked Mr Wilkie yesterday for citing as a reason to join Labor a $1 billion offer from Mr Abbott to build a new hospital in Hobart. Mr Wilkie had wanted a new hospital but thought Mr Abbott's offer was unethical compared with Ms Gillard's offer to source funding though existing mechanisms.
Mr Robb and the shadow treasurer, Joe Hockey, said it was Mr Wilkie who had demanded the $1 billion from Mr Abbott. Mr Robb accused Mr Wilkie of being in the thrall of Labor's spin doctor firm.
The three independents are expected to make a decision on Monday. Mr Katter and Mr Windsor said again yesterday they may all go the same way.
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