GRAIN producers will increasingly deal in regionalised markets in the future, with local factors meaning prices are likely to vary from port zone to port zone, according to industry commentators.
"Look at the livestock industry: the northern zone has a different set of drivers to the southern zone, and that is increasingly the case in grains as well," said GrainCorp corporate affairs manager David Ginns.
"We see there are different seasonal conditions in western and eastern Australia and that will mean the markets will be different as well."
Mr Ginns said prices in Australia were formerly nationalised, due to the single desk and the national pool, however marketers were now operating according to the supply and demand sheets in individual areas.
"The market will normalise along commercial lines if it is allowed to and there is no further regulation."
Chris Aucote, Bunge Australia general manager, said as the industry evolved, different markets were emerging.
"As an industry, we are seeing how an open market works, and a function of that has been the small regional premiums that emerge when a buyer needs to fill a shipment or when there is strong domestic demand.
"Different regions have different types of grain, so marketers will focus on buying specific grain from specific areas."
Ron Storey, Storey Marketing Services, said in an export surplus year all markets would largely be driven by world prices, meaning prices would be roughly equitable - however, there would be regional dynamics according to selling time, the usage time of the domestic market and other local factors.
"There will always be some sort of correlation in Australian prices, but some exporters will have sales happening that need grain to meet them.
"They will have to be more aggressive in the short term in their buying in the area where they plan to ship from, which will lead to spikes.
"That appetite for grain today will be something that can assist growers looking to get the best value for their grain."
Production factors like last year’s Western Australian drought would also lead to premiums in certain shipping zones.