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World wheat production is rebounding

20 Oct, 2008 07:55 AM
World wheat stocks have been tight for some time and decreased production around the globe last year made them even tighter.

But many have said a rebound in world wheat production was needed this year and it looks like it is happening.

The Russian Agricultural Ministry has reported that wheat harvest and exports were significantly higher at this time than they were in 2007.

The Ukraine also reported excellent grain harvests of 70pc more than a year ago.

While Rabobank cut the estimate of Australia's wheat harvest by a half million tons, their forecast of 20.5 million is still a significant increase over the past two year's harvests that were hit by severe drought.

A report out of Europe shows a 25pc increase in forecasted wheat production over last year.

"What we are looking at now is an increase of world wheat production to the tune of nearly 70 million tons," says World Trade Outlook chairman Gerry Bange.

"That is a very, very sharp increase; over 11pc increase in one year."

The US wheat production has also increased by 21pc over last year.

However, Mr Bange says there is a slight problem with this rebound.

"The recovery is coming at a time where we are having sort of an economic slowdown world wide," he said.

"That has contributed to our decrease in commodity prices that we've seen of late.

"So it depends really on which side of the fence you're on.

"If you are looking at it from the perspective of less pressure on food prices it's good news; if you are looking at it from the perspective of the farmer it's not such good news."

Mr Bange says the board has cut US average wheat prices for next season by 25 cents to $7 a bushel which is still more than a half dollar above what growers received this past season.

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Date: Newest first | Oldest first
Next year brace yourself for a massive reduction in the area planted around the world. Massive increases in input cost like fuel, fert and chemical coupled with the drop in grain prices will force growers not to sow. No longer can farmers around the world produce food below the cost of production especially in Australia.

The Government interference in removing Australia's orderly market system is already returning the sale of wheat back to pre-single desk days of volitile prices and market manipulation by traders. World food security is going to be like Zimbabwe's supermarkets.

Posted by Mark, 21/10/2008 5:00:42 AM
Yeah that figures. Sounds like wheat will be worth bugger all again before too long. I bet the loaf price doesn't go down in the supermarkets!
Posted by Bruce, 21/10/2008 5:42:11 AM
The single desk would have done nothing!
Posted by Mack, 21/10/2008 5:50:45 PM
Mack does not know what planet he is on but I suggest that he is in for one hell of a shock when he finds out that with out the National pool he might struggle to even get a bid for his wheat.
Posted by Realist, 22/10/2008 7:32:10 PM

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