Lamb exports for the year to date are at record volumes, up 10 per cent on that of the same period last year.

But commentators fear the lofty Australian dollar and the potential for a slowdown in export demand could damage the market’s golden run next year, if consumers turn to cheaper protein substitutes.

Meat and Livestock Australia sheepmeat analyst Kara Tighe said the high Australian dollar and global financial crisis had negatively impacted demand from traditional export markets, such as European Union, Japan and United States.

“But next year we expect (lamb) prices to remain firm as the growing demand in Chinas (Hong Kong, Taiwan and China) and the Middle East and expectation from Meat and Wool New Zealand of lower lamb supply continue to hold the market,” she said, noting domestic demand intelligence was still favourable.

Hamilton Luff and Co director Tony Luff, Wagga Wagga, NSW, were upbeat about the outlook for firm lamb prices next year but noted many restockers had been put off by high prices and had not bought this year, sending volumes of store lambs to the processors.

In terms of supply, Mr Luff said Wagga Wagga markets, the largest in Australia, had been reliably around 24,000-35,000 head this year but he was cautious about the new year.

“I don’t know where we are going to find lambs after February,” he said.

Mr Luff said producers weighing up sales options should monitor market movements and trade in the auction system on a rising market and over the hooks when prices trended down.

“Fresher lambs make more in the auction system while lambs that have dried off would do better over the hooks,” he said.

As the lamb forward contract season begins, Rural Press understands Tatiara Meat Company has confirmed it will be offering contracts.

A spokesperson said producers would have these within “a month”.

At Swift, livestock manager Steve Chapman was equally guarded about details, but said this week forward contracts would be offered in the “next week to 10 days.”

T and R Pastoral executive director Darren Thomas also confirmed the company would continue to offer forward contracts to its regular suppliers, but warned demand could ease if “the dollar continues to rise.”

Castricum Brother declined to comment on its contract intentions.