WHEN Labor was fighting for re-election during the 2010 federal campaign, the toxic governments in NSW and Queensland were a factor blamed for damaging the Labor brand and making Julia Gillard's task harder.
The orthodoxy was that once these governments were dispatched to opposition at their elections, federal Labor would recover its stocks in those critical states. It hasn't happened in NSW. Now the thesis will be tested in Queensland. Yesterday the Premier, Anna Bligh, set March 24 for the election, which pundits expect her to lose.
In effect, Labor has been in power in the state for 22 years and, while Queenslanders don't change government easily, Bligh held on against the odds in 2009.
Now she is carrying the extra baggage of a slow state economy and serious questions about whether the floods that devastated Brisbane last year could have been mitigated by better management of Wivenhoe Dam.
The commission of inquiry into the dam releases will report on March 16, one week before the election, after Ms Bligh granted it an extension.
"Clearly this will be a very controversial thing to land in the middle of an election campaign," she said. ''I am acting here in the interests of Queensland, not in the interests of myself or the government.''
The election will be fought on state issues but beyond that, everyone will be looking for federal implications. Queensland is a state where federal Labor must pull back seats if it is to hold on to power. The state delivered nine of the 23 seats Labor took from the Coalition in 2007 to depose the Howard government.
After the near loss in 2010, Labor was left holding only eight of the 30 federal electorates in Queensland.
Kevin Rudd is a Queenslander and, no doubt, will be asked to help campaign. He will have to balance trying play the saviour with associating himself with what Labor insiders say will be a wipe-out.
Gillard is likely to keep her distance but it will be interesting to see how much work she is asked to do in comparison with Rudd.
The later-than-expected election date does give Gillard some breathing space because federal leadership machinations will be put on hold at least until after the Queensland campaign.
If the Liberal National Party wins power, life will become harder for the federal government with the four most powerful states - NSW, Victoria, Western Australia and Queensland - all under conservative rule.
They will be powerful political allies for Tony Abbott in stymying the federal agenda and marshalling resources for a federal campaign.
The federal Coalition will be watching anxiously how Bob Katter's fledgling Australia Party fares in Queensland.
The Queensland Nationals believe the populist and protectionist party could win three state seats. Katter believes that if he can grab enough seats, he can create a platform to win a federal Queensland seat other than his own of Kennedy.
This risks straining tensions within the federal Coalition if the Nationals feel they need a bit more brand definition to keep Katter at bay in Queensland.
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