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 WA drought 'could be worst for 750 years' 

WA drought 'could be worst for 750 years'

08 Feb, 2010 10:49 AM
IF you thought the drought affecting south-west WA since the 1970s was extreme, you were right.

But just how extreme has been a matter of contention.

Now, scientists believe it could be the worst of its kind in 750 years, after making an unexpected discovery.

Researchers from the Australian Antarctic Division and Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre have identified a link between the drought, which began in the early 1970s, and snowfall at a site in East Antractica over the same period.

In research published in Nature Geoscience, they say the relationship is inverse - high snowfalls at the Law Dome site correlate with low rain in the south-west.

That is as a result of the atmospheric circulation pattern which brings dry, cool air to Australia, while sending warm, moist air to East Antarctica.

However, the high snowfall at Law Dome was unlike any other in the past 750 years, and led the researchers to believe the drought was similarly unusual.

Since the 1970s, there has been a decline of up to 20 per cent in winter rainfall in the south west, and though the cause of the drought remains unclear, others have pointed to land-use changes, ocean temperatures, air circulation changes and natural variability.

But its severity has been hard to calculate, with weather records only going back about 100 years, and the oldest tree-ring record, 350 years, from a site that has not been affected by the drought.

The researchers found that the snowfall was of a severity expected only once in every 38,000 years. Adjusting their analysis of ice cores, it still should only happen about every 5400 years.

"It also suggests... that if the mix of factors that influence (south west) rainfall over the past century reflects that of the longer term, then the recent drought... may be similarly unusual," the researchers say.

Lead researcher Tas van Ommen said the results of the study were unexpected.

"We were surprised at first, given the complexity of climate processes, to find such a direct connection between our ice core and the climate of Western Australia," he said.

"By identifying new processes that influence regional Australian climate, this work offers the possibility to improve understanding and reduce uncertainty in future projections of climate change.

"This work underscores the need for long-term records of past climate from sources like ice cores and it illustrates the important role that Antarctic climate processes play globally."

It suggested human influence was likely to have played a role in the drought, Dr van Ommen said.

University of NSW professor Andy Pitman said the study was a "good and bad news story".

"It is good for those policy makers in WA who invested in alternative sources of water based on earlier research by CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology," he said.

"This new science suggests they made a wise decision. It is, of course, less good news for the future of water dependent industries in WA and re-enforces the urgent need for global cuts in greenhouse gas emissions."

Monash University professor Neville Nicholls said the researchers may even have underestimated the severity of the drought.

"Since about 1990 snowfall at their site in Antarctica appears to have decreased but the south west rainfall has not rebounded as we might have expected from this," he said.

"This indicates that some additional mechanism is affecting either snowfall or the drought. This is not surprising in a time of strong global warming. But we do need to work out these mechanisms."

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There has not been a drought in the South West of WA since the seventies. I class the district of Narrogin as representative of the WA South West Land Division. In the 40 years 1960 to 2000 the rainfall was above the 119-year average of 496.8mls for 23 0f those years. Hardly a drought!!!! However the last 9 years have all been slightly less than the average which is somewhat concerning. An interesting exercise is to go to the Antarctic Website www.aad.gov.au click on Antarctic Snowfall Linked to West Australian Drought and then click the graph on the left bottom of page. In the forties & sixties rainfall & snowfall had parallel pattern. You will note that in 1970 it indicates a severe drop in rainfall & SNOWFALL but the article states the complete opposite.
Posted by steffi, 8/02/2010 2:50:29 PM
That headline could be the most hard hitting(loud guffaw) or it might not.
Posted by THE FARMER, 8/02/2010 9:06:10 PM
Drought in WA? Most people in south-west NSW would'nt mind having their drought.
Posted by rahh, 8/02/2010 10:12:14 PM
Where do these so called scientist get off coming out with these dodgy research figures to defend their research funds. This info is old news and to come out now to back KRudd and Wrong's ETS is a disgrace. I have known for a while now about the influence the Polar Vortex has on our weather paterns. We also had the hole in the Ozone layer which added to the effect. NSW has been in drought for 10 years but prior to that we had some good seasons. Yesterday this same doom sayer was on ABC radio linking their findings to man made carbon. Come on, this article states that it has happened before thousands of years ago and will happen again. How can you link man made carbon to the last event thousands of years ago and again this time. Tony Burke admitted to farmers last year that he supports man-made carbon climate change based on these same rubbery figures. This is a national disgrace designed to push through KRUDD'S massive new tax. It could also be said that it is natural change like what is happening on PLUTO at the moment. Men in black suits looking to fill bank accounts is all it is.
Posted by Mark, 9/02/2010 7:05:04 AM
I agree Steffi, I am confused Chalpat. A drought in Sout West WA, news to me. In the years I have been dealing with this part of the world it is the one part of Australia that could guarantee it would be wet during winter, not to mention the regular summer rainfall. I am also aware of agricultural enterprises that have specifically chosen this part of the world specifically because of the predictable and good rainfall paterns. Perhaps Chalpat could be a little more specific with what part of the world is South West WA.
Posted by katandra, 9/02/2010 7:14:26 AM
If the data in the article are correct, it is not a once in anything drought, it is CLIMATE CHANGE. Things won't come back to "normal". Get used to it. The same in the Murray Darling. The climate has changed, for the worse.
Posted by Barney, 9/02/2010 8:06:27 AM
Actually Steffi, the snow graph is inversed, so when the line movements go in the same direction the fall patterns are reversed (ie. rising snow graph indicates falling snow volumes). So the periods you point out support the theory.
Posted by JayDin, 9/02/2010 8:27:15 AM
What a headline, could be worst in 750 years. We are just not sure as Grandma can't remember exactly what happened in the winter of 1260, nor can she remember what position Australia was in, has she drifted north in the last 750 years. The media continue to be nothing more than story writers and we all fall into the trap of believing what they write. I for one take all of what they tell me with a pinch of salt, I think we all should.
Posted by WWJD, 9/02/2010 10:00:04 AM
Don't the media printing this stuff have any responsibility in vetting what the print. How can anyone make a correlation back 750 years. The fact is they can't, and it's a disgrace that FarmOnline actually print this stuff.
Posted by Archibald, 9/02/2010 12:37:04 PM
JayDin, According to the graph, the period from 1970 to 2010 has seen very erratic snowfall whereas the rainfall line is generally around 300mm. The graph does not concur with the Van Ommen opinion at all. Between 1995 & 2010 snowfall was somewhat light (600 - 650mm ) and certainly not high as the article states
Posted by steffi, 10/02/2010 11:25:27 AM
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