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 Opportunity to cash in on grain still exists 

Opportunity to cash in on grain still exists

27 Jan, 2012 02:00 AM
AUTUMN is the time for WA growers to sell new season grain according to Geraldton-based Planfarm consultant, Cameron Weeks.

Despite a recent United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report which showed American farmers planted far more wheat than expected this season in a bid to profit from high grain prices, Mr Weeks believed Australian prices wouldn't necessarily plummet in the medium term.

The USDA report demonstrated a bearish outlook for most grains, including wheat and corn, which some Australian grain analysts said would be bad news for local grain prices.

But Mr Weeks believed there would still be an opportunity for WA growers to capitalise despite high tonnages of grain throughout the world.

With a large proportion of WA's bumper harvest still unsold or uncommitted, Mr Weeks encouraged a number of his clients to sell through February, March and April.

And with growers in the Geraldton port zone coming out of their biggest yielding harvest ever, many were happy to do just that.

"Where grain prices are going to go, nobody can say," Mr Weeks said.

"The only thing we know is the world has a lot of wheat on hand and the chances of seeing a significant shift in price between now and seeding is probably pretty low."

Mr Weeks said despite early fears sparked by the USDA report, prices during the next three or four months would always bounce around.

"If you could pick a period during the year when you don't expect prices to be doing anything very exciting, I would usually, but not always, pick mid-December through to late January or early February," he said.

"It's usually a pretty dull time in the market."

Mr Weeks said after Christmas growers who had warehoused grain usually started to get edgy about getting rid of their residual stocks.

But he encouraged them not to fear industry talks about falling prices because he saw no real logic to the claims, within the next three months at least.

But if it became apparent there was a large-scale world crop, which wouldn't be known until the middle of the year, then prices could certainly drop off.

"Half of most people's problem is they keep too close an eye on the market and they don't have a plan because they only want a certain price for their grain," Mr Weeks said.

"If you're cash strapped just sell, put the money in the bank, move on, start planning for next year and cross your fingers."

Mr Weeks also said the high yielding season in the Geraldton port zone meant growers needed to consider their cash management options.

A large number of them had committed to deferred payment terms for a proportion of their cash sales.

He said those farmers would lock in the sale price of their grain during autumn but elect not to be paid until July in order to push some income into the next year.

"Some areas throughout the Wheatbelt are coming off the back of a couple of tough years, so farmers are trying to squeeze as much out of this year's crop as possible," Mr Weeks said.

"But luckily most of our clients are in the luxurious position of not having to worry too much about cash flow in the first six months so they can afford to push some income out until July."

But that didn't mean growers should hold onto their grain for too long.

Last week CBH head of marketing, Tom Puddy agreed with Mr Weeks and said with a number of farmers holding onto grain in on-farm storage, there was a short-term supply issue even though Australia was awash with grain.

He advised those holding onto tonnes in the hope of further price gains that there was scope for price downslides of $20-30/t and the stronger basis reflected marketers trying to meet orders.

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