"Our computer model simulated the effect of wild pigs moving across the landscape and showed how classical swine fever could spread among feral pigs in the right seasonal conditions, becoming endemic and almost impossible to eradicate," Professor George Milne of UWA's computer science school warned.

"The time of the outbreak and seasonal factors are absolutely critical to how quickly the disease could spread and our modelling clearly shows the greatest danger of a rapidly spreading epidemic is at the start of the dry season, which is about now, when feral pigs gather around water sources.

"We know male pigs travel great distances and can spread the disease far and wide, so an effective strategy to combat an outbreak during the dry season would involve targeting adult male herds."

Darryl D'Souza, General Manager, Research and Innovation at Australian Pork Limited, said that classical swine fever could have a very serious impact on the pig industry.

"Classical swine fever, last reported in Australia in 1961, could have a devastating impact on the industry through increasing mortality and morbidity and reducing reproductive performance," Dr D'Souza said.

"It's vital that any classical swine fever outbreak in feral pigs is controlled quickly, as it poses a serious threat to Australia's two-and-a-half million domestic pigs and an industry annually contributing almost $1 billion to the Australian economy."

Dr D'Souza stressed swine fever was in no way related to the H1N1 swine flu virus currently afflicting humans around the world. He said swine flu was not present in Australian pigs, and could not be spread by eating properly handled and prepared pork.

"Prediction models are excellent tools and will certainly assist the industry to predict swine fever outbreaks and hence effective management strategies can be developed and implemented," he said.