LIVESTOCK exports from WA are tipped to drop in 2012.
According to Wellard Rural Exports managing director Steve Meerwald live exports from WA for both sheep and cattle were expected to drop slightly in the next 12 months.
If Mr Meerwald's prediction proves to be correct it would be the third drop in live cattle exports in a row and the fourth drop in a row for live sheep exports.
Questions have been raised since the Bill Farmer Review was released on October 21 last year, as to what impact the new regulations would have on live export numbers, while the recent Indonesian live cattle quota cut back to just 280,000 head of cattle has also caused concerns in the industry.
Mr Meerwald said it was hard to predict how many cattle would be exported this year due to the uncertainty of the Indonesian quota.
"The Indonesian quota probably threw a bit of a curve ball in regards to the cattle export predictions," Mr Meerwald said.
"It wasn't really anticipated but in my personal view I don't think there will be much of a change in the cattle numbers because I see the demand for Australian cattle as strong.
"There might be a modest reduction in the 2012 numbers but I also see cattle availability as very tight as there are some very good prices at the moment and there is a lot of restocking going on."
He said the sheep situation was similar to cattle in that a lot of farmers were looking to restock.
"I would expect sheep numbers to stay about where they were last year," he said.
"They are already below what we have seen for the last 20 or 30 years and there has been significant pressure on our markets anyway because we have hit a price sensitive market.
"Again restocking demand in Australia is strong and it should be.
"If you look at the money you get for sheep meat and wool compared to the current wheat price, the mixed operation is still a very sound way of running some of the lighter country and I think there is still demand out there.
"I think the numbers will be around the same as last year but it is at very low levels at the moment."
Mr Meerwald said he expects the live exports to increase by the middle of the year with Ramadan at the end of July and early August and Hajj in October.
He said the lack of stock in WA also meant live exports for 2012 would start slow.
"The demand in the first half of the year may be a little bit light but there isn't a lot of stock around at the moment anyway," he said.
"That will be an issue.
"It is hard to plot what happens throughout the year but I expect the year to be around the same as 2011 albeit that 2011 was pretty low in general terms."
Mr Meerwald said next year's live exports would also start slow due to Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Turkey, all being put up to standard by February 29 under the Bill Farmer Review.
He said the markets were still slowly building an understanding of what was required under the recommendations, but were well on their way to reaching those standards.
He said the markets had the infrastructure to be able to deal with the changes but the difficult part would be trying to get the documentation through in time for the first shipment to leave on March 1.
"I don't think there will be any issue with getting up to standard but the biggest problem will be trying to get the documentation through in time," he said.
"They have a good understanding of what is required but it is now the documents which need to be processed within the timeframe to allow the first shipment to go.
"It does not only have to be put in place by then but it also needs to have been demonstrated to the Australian authorities."
He said despite the changes being made under the recommendations of the review he still believed there would be some disruptions as the supply chain got used to the new requirements.
"The changes are not going to be without problems," he said.
"It will probably mean some disruptions into those markets and I think it will cause some confusion and disruption initially but after that it will just become part of the trade."
He said one of the biggest challenges was changing the mindset of the workers in many of the overseas abattoirs.
"It is not really a cost issue it is a culture issue," he said.
"Changing the way they do things will be the biggest challenge."
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